Duel Meet
That's not a typo!
Who cares that it’s 92 degrees outside? Who cares that the equinox is still weeks away? Fall is officially, inarguably, here.
You don’t have to take my word for it — the facts are on my side. This Saturday (that’s tomorrow, at least as I publish this), the 2022 NIRCA cross country season will begin on the green grass of Bloomington, Indiana in what will essentially wind up being an unofficial dual meet between the hometown Hoosiers and Illinois, their neighbors to the west.
The folks over at IU were kind enough to send over the start list for this weekend, and I’ve been poring over the data ever since. That’s right, data. I was a Religious Studies major in college, so you’ll understand what a monumental effort this is for me. But I got a C+ in Stats my freshman year of college, and I think that’s mathematic pedigree enough to tool around on Excel with a bunch of race results, so here is my earnest and admittedly unscientific assessment of what to expect in Indiana tomorrow.
Men’s Race
Being the first race of the year, and with each team’s significant roster of freshmen, there are a lot of question marks heading into tomorrow’s race. There might be some real studs among the first-year runners on either team, and there’s no promising that some of last year’s returning stars haven’t been shirking their summer miles. In the men’s 5k, however, one team is starting the year with a lot more question marks on their roster than the other.
Going off last year’s results, the Illinois men tend to be a bit stronger on the grass. They finished 3rd at XC Nationals with 140 points, 300 points ahead of IU’s 16th place finish in 440. The field begins to level back out, however, when you look at who’s actually back on the Illini roster.
Eldon Warner finished second overall at Nats, just 4 seconds behind Pitt’s Nick Wolk. He’s not running tomorrow. Bram Osterhout and Stephen Barretto (12th and 18th, respectively) weren’t far behind. They’re not running either. Neither is Will Gravelle, their fifth man at Nats, or Jeffery Hesselbein, their sixth. In fact, only one scoring member of their 2021 will be out on the course tomorrow — Justin Ostrem, 36th at Nationals, 26:10. Seventh man John Wiser (108th, 27:21) will be back as well, not to mention Spencer Nelson, who didn’t run at Nats but placed 20th at the Great Plains Regional Championship last year in 27:23.
As for the home team, they’ve also lost several of their Nats squad — just not their top scorers. Noah Scott, 10th at Nationals in 25:31, will be toeing the line on Saturday. Scott’s got a history of winning season openers (he won last year’s, the Miami Striders Invitational, by a comfortable margin), and a cursory glance at his Strava proves he’s been putting in the work this summer. 23rd place Nats-finisher and team record holder over the XC 8k, Alexander Livernois, will also be running tomorrow. Livernois is a Rutgers XCTF alum but has been running for the IURC for several years. He also ran sub-26 at Nats and finished 4th at the aforementioned Striders opener.
Looking at the full picture of the men’s start list for tomorrow, it really comes down to this: Illinois has the numbers, but Indiana has the vets. None of Illinois’ sub-26 guys from last year are running the Hoosier Opener — Indiana has two. Since only two teams are running, it’s going to be a low-scoring meet no matter what. After a great deal of debate, I’m setting the over/under at 25 points for tomorrow, and the chances of an Indiana victory at -120.
Women’s Race
Things on the women’s side ought to be even closer. Indiana — who finished 20th at Nationals last year with a score of 533 — will be missing Lauren Murphy, who finished 9th in the 2021 XC champs and went on to win championship titles in the 800m and the 1500m that Spring. Their next scoring runner, Ashton Courtney (87th, 25:16), will be back, however. So will Sarah Perdekamp (150th, 26:19), Kyla Curtis (162nd, 26:31), and Rebecca White (167, 26:38).
Illinois, who finished 25th with 607 at Nats 20211, held on to their top scorer. Brisa McGrath finished 21st at Nats in 23:29 and 2nd at Regionals in 24:00 last year, and she’s on the start list for tomorrow. So is Mikeelie Jensen, the Illinois women’s #2 finisher who ran 25:53 last year for 126th. Their next 5, however, are gone. Alyson Ficca, who ran 26:12 last year for a 22nd-place finish at regionals as a freshman, is on the start list, though. A year later and a summer stronger, there’s a good chance she’ll be dangerous on the grass this season.
Setting my predictions for this one wasn’t easy. Both teams are relatively young overall, but each has a few solid returning members to ground their roster. It was the combined strength of Jensen and McGrath, however, that swayed me in the end. I’m setting the U/O line for the final score at 33, with Illinois sitting at -110 and a Brisa McGrath individual win at -130.
What do you think? Are my odds bogus, or have I given a fair preview for the race tomorrow?
Either way, I couldn't be more excited for the season to begin. Once things really get moving, I’ll need your help to make sure I stay on top of it all. So! Send your results, your photos, your musing, and your news to reasonablyspeedy@gmail.com. And, of course, please subscribe to the newsletter. It’ll be worth the weekly real estate in your inbox — I swear.
It cannot be ignored that the Illinois women won the national title as a team last Spring. They did this, however, largely off the dominance of their sprints and jumps squads. The only points they put on the board in anything longer than 400m were either Katherine Vande Pol or Annie Brunton, neither of whom are back.
We will try not to let you down