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Prediction, Precipitations, and Everything You Need to Know Going Into Nats

THIS. IS. NOT. A. DRILL.

Nationals Eve, at long last, is upon us. As many of you begin your descent¹ into RVA (some, I would imagine, for the first time), allow me to extend my warmest invitations! I grew up around here, I live here now, and I have very strong opinions on local coffee and bagels — if you need a post-race pick-me-up tomorrow, come find me for my recommendations.

I’ve spent the last week toiling away at my predictions. As always, my assessments are completely devoid of any legitimate statistical analysis, and yet I find that they are consistently pretty accurate (or, at least, no less accurate than the mathematical ones). I spend my days thinking of club running, and I know this sport. However, after I’d solidified all my predictions, I received a correspondence from a kind soul out at Notre Dame who actually done the math. And — get this — their conclusions were pretty damn close to mine! So I’ll share my predictions below, then theirs, and you can decide who you want to believe.

Women’s Race — The RS Report

Alright y’all, the women’s league is strong strong this year. While we haven’t seen as many of the individual standouts as on the men’s side, there are several teams that have been consistently fast and even more consistently cohesive. The question isn’t who can run the fastest — it’s which team can finish with the most people near the front.

I don’t believe that any team is unbeatable, but if there was ever a team that came close, it’d be the MRun women. They’ve spent their season undefeated, swapping first-place individual finishers but never giving up the team win. This kind of top-finisher swapping is actually one of the greatest signs of their team’s strength across the board — several of them are fast enough to finish first, not just one strong performer. The Notre Dame women are also extremely strong and have the depth. They’ve flown somewhat under the radar this year, mostly because they keep having to race MRun. But trust me, they’re good. Really good. And they’re absolutely a threat this weekend.

Closer to my neck of the woods, Virginia Tech is, as always, a major contender. I don’t have them down as a win, but I’d be shocked if they weren’t on the podium. UNC also has an MRun-esque powerful roster packed front to back with certified contenders. These two also have a bit of an advantage over the midwesterners in that — to put it plainly — they didn’t have to drive for 9+ hours to get here. I’m no stranger to road trips, and all I’m saying is that if I were running a 6k the next morning, I’d take the 4-hour drive over the 10-hour drive any day.

Rounding out my top 5 I’ve got Cornell, a team that maybe hasn’t gotten the press attention of the others (whoops!) but has the depth, has the wins, and has the track record to be a serious contender this weekend.

So, with all that being said, my predictions for the women’s top 5 at Pole Green Park tomorrow are:

1. Michigan (MRun)

2. Notre Dame

3. Virginia Tech

4. North Carolina

5. Cornell

Men’s Race — The RS Report

The men’s race tomorrow will likely be run very differently than the women’s — this half of the league seems to be defined this year by some very strong individual standouts, but less cohesive teams. I think there’s a good chance we’ll see much higher scores on the men’s podium than on the women’s. That being said, there are several teams in contention who’ve got some serious depth.

My pick for top contender, at this point, is VA Tech, AND NOT JUST ‘CAUSE THEY’LL YELL AT ME OTHERWISE. Tech has proven their depth and their strength as a team consistently this season. They also haven’t suffered a team loss since before track nationals in the Spring. They also, as I mentioned prior, have a relatively short commute into RVA. All these things combined led me to take the Hokies as my top pick for tomorrow.

Next up is another easy pick, MRun. The Michigan men have been consistently great this year, as they are every year. They’re not quite the juggernauts their women’s team is, but it’ll be a cold day in hell before I don’t expect to see them on a podium at a major race like this.

Northeastern was last year’s team winner, and there’s little to suggest they’ve done anything to slow down in the meantime. Also, let me remind you that Cameron Leonard, their top runner, ran 24:22 on the grass just two weeks ago. Pitt’s in a similar situation — historically great, and not showing any signs of defying history (save for the fact that Nick Wolk, last year’s individual champ, is officially out of the picture). Rounding out my list is Purdue, another team that may not have garnered the press of some of the others, but has the consistency and the depth to have caught my attention. All in all, it’s gonna be a hell of a morning out at Pole Green. My top-5 predictions are as follows:

1. Virginia Tech

2. Michigan (MRun)

3. Northeastern

4. Pitt

5. Purdue

Now, the Math

Early this morning, Jonathan Karr (Notre Dame RC’s race coordinator) reached out to me with a spreadsheet detailing his (actually mathematically-sound) predictions for Nats. I was pleased and vindicated to see that they lined up pretty damn well with mine! You can check out Jonathan’s predictions here.

Mid-Atlantic (Unofficial) Results

Remember how, due to a timing goof, we didn’t have any results for the Mid-Atlantic men’s regional race? Well, due to the heroic efforts of VT’s Ben Darden, we now have an unofficial list. His methodology seems to have involved Strava stalking and primary sources. I don’t question the man’s methods, but I definitely appreciate having some record of the meet’s results — check them out here!

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1. Or, for my friends down South, ascent