Miami Vice
A Showdown in Ohio
Okay, yeah, we’re in the swing of things now. There was a meet last weekend. There’ll be another this weekend. It was borderline chilly on my run this morning. The sky was overcast, the breeze was light, and it almost — almost — smelled like Fall.
It’ll still be near 90 today, but even if sweater weather remains weeks away, I’m just happy to have races to talk about. I’m just a reporter, after all1.
Hoosier Opener Recap
In Which I Am Right (Most of the Time)
Look, for a guy who has no idea how sports analytics actually works, I think I did a pretty solid job. Brisa McGrath won the women’s race2, finishing first by a definitive 84-second margin ahead of Indiana’s top runner, Annabel Prokopy. After that, a string of Illinois’ freshmen and sophomores locked things down, finishing 3-4-5-7 and bringing their team score to a near-perfect 193. Indiana’s Noah Scott took the win in the men’s race by a 16-second margin but was followed by a pack of Illini men finishing 2-3-4-5-7. The runner-up was Illinois freshman Ethan Forsell, followed by his sophomore teammate Adam Gorcyca.
I have two main takeaways from the Hoosier Season Opener:
Both of Illinois’ teams are really, really good at racing as a group and finishing as a pack.
The Illini freshmen and sophomores are a force to be reckoned with. While both individual races were won by seniors, both team races were won decisively by the underclassmen.
Coming Up: Miami Striders Invitational
Tomorrow will give us a glimpse of what much of Ohio’s got waiting for us for the rest of the year. Several Buckeye State teams4 will toe the line in Oxford on Saturday. Though it'll be Cincinnati's second meet of the season (more on that later), it'll be the first chance we get to see how Ball State, Akron, Bowling Green State, Cincinnati, and Miami of Ohio rank up against each other.
Women’s Race
The women’s race will only see two full teams — Miami and Cincinnati. AkRun is still sending two runners, however, and Ball State is sending Sara Barnhizer, who finished 6th in NIRCA’s Spring Half Marathon championship, running 1:38 in tough conditions.
Cincinnati is the smaller of the two teams — their 6 harriers leave little room for error if they want to take a team win. In their corner, however, they have Bradley McManus, who placed 29th at XC Nats last fall. There’s also Carissa Widenhouse, who ran a 50-miler in July — I think it’s pretty safe to assume she’s got a strong aerobic base. She ran 21:07 at Wright State’s Mike Baumer Classic last weekend, too. Marie Musser, 141st finisher at Nats 2021, also returns. With the exception of first-year runner Elle Seeger, the Cincinnati women’s team is entirely Juniors and Grad Students. Small though their team may be, there’s no denying they’re experienced.
Miami has the numbers, though on paper their team seems a bit less experienced. Only three members of their Nationals team — Lauren Chapman, Ashley Butcher, and Natalie Nagel — are running the race. Based on last week’s races, however, inexperience is no reason to write off a team’s chances, especially when they outnumber their opponents considerably.
After crunching the numbers5, I've set the odds in favor of a Miami of Ohio team win on home turf at -110, with an over/under line at 27 points. I went back and forth on this, but the quantity of their runners (and Cincy's lack thereof) is ultimately what swayed me. I do think Cincinnatti will have at least 2 runners in the top 5, however. Also, keep an eye on Sara Barnhizer, Ball State's lone wolf. I'm betting she finishes in the top 10, if not the top 7.
Men’s Race
There’ll be four full teams gunning for the win in the men’s race tomorrow — Akron, Cincinnati, Miami, and Bowling Green State.
Akron’s bringing Andy Feltman, who won the Akrun Invitational opener last year in 17:13. They’ve also got Justin Zapotoczny, who finished 2nd at the same race, and Jay Miller, who finished 11th. BGSU has Brandon Piehler, who finished 68th at XC Nats last year. Andrew Madison, who also ran Nats, will be returning as well.
Cincinnati’s most notable absence will be Nicky Alexander, who — as we broke back in June — has left the D4 world for (I think) the University of Louisville. Based on their performance at Wright State last weekend, however, they’ve got as strong a corps of freshmen as anyone. Logan Feeney led his team last Saturday, finishing in 16:17. Robert Fechtel wasn’t far behind. Returning runners Marc Halley and Ben Shafron, both of whom are racing tomorrow, also had strong performances.
The home turf team, however, has a secret weapon. Well, three of them, actually: Elliot Rodstom, Johnny Sayle, and Alex Kowolak, who swept the podium at the NIRCA road 5k championship in the Spring. Sayle and Rodstrom also ran XC Nats, finishing 21st and 73rd, respectively, as did Michael Ferro and Liam McGuckin, both of whom are also racing tomorrow.
What with the inclusion of Miami’s road 5k team, the odds are pointing to a home team win. Cincinnati and Akron will definitely have some guys in the front pack, however. Keep an eye out for Cincy’s Logan Feeney, especially. I’m setting the odds for a Miami win at -125, and the over/under at 23.
Place your bets in the comments, either here or on Instagram. It ought to be a helluva race (and then another helluva race).
Author’s Note(s)
Two quick reminders! First, if you enjoy what I’m doing here at Reasonably Speedy, please please please send this newsletter to a few of your running buddies, D4 or otherwise. We just hit 300 followers on Instagram, and we’re rapidly approaching 150 subscribers here on Substack, but the only way we ever grow is when folks like you share us with your friends. So please, pass along a link to the fastest runner you know, the most enthusiastic runner you know, or even just a random friend who you think would enjoy what I’m doing over here.
Secondly, our merch is still up! I’ve priced it all as inexpensively as I can without Teespring getting mad at me — I’d rather see folks out and about wearing RS tees than make any real profit off this — so check out the store here. There will also be more shirt designs coming soon, mostly ‘cause I think designing them is fun.
I actually am, professionally speaking, and that’s a fact to which I am yet to fully adjust.
Excluding Tori Schmidt, who — though she ran a great race! — is a redshirting D1 runner for Indiana, and is thus outside of the scope of our D4 conversation.
I’m the only one who bet on the under, SO THERE!
The notable exception being the actual Buckeyes, (the) Ohio State.
Staring at my computer and going “hmmmmmm” a lot.