Showing Up When It Matters
This Is Like Sunday Night Football for NIRCA Nerds
In a word, I am psyched.
Around the country, club runners are gearing up for tomorrow morning. For some, it’ll be their first race effort in months. Others may have raced as recently as last weekend. But be this a rust-buster or just another race, there are SIX NIRCA meets1 to look forward to this Saturday.
There are a lot of teams running this weekend, and I am far too employed to manage a team-by-team breakdown with the kind of granularity I’ve published in previous weeks this season2. Nevertheless, I’ve taken a look at all the races set to be run this weekend, and I am stoked to say the least. This is like Sunday Night Football for NIRCA Nerds. Powerful dynasties will be defended, new upstarts will be gunning for pole position, and — with any luck — the conditions will be just bad enough to sift out the tough from the tougher.
But, before diving into my expectations for Saturday, y’all are due for a quick recap of last weekend.
Striders Invitational Recap
Look, WHEN I’M RIGHT I’M RIGHT. Other times I’m wrong, but we’ll try to move past those quickly. I have yet to track down the complete official results from last Saturday in Oxford, but I’ve managed to piece together a good deal from Instagram, Strava, and an inside informant on the UC team3.
First things first, the Cincy women pulled off a bonkers team win despite having only five runners on the start line. Knowing that a bad day from any one of them could knock out their chances of a win, the UC women finished with 3 runners in the top 5 and another in sixth. Carissa Widenhouse won the individual race, taking the lead from the gun and never giving it back. If you recall, I said the UC gals might have the experience to win, but I was worried by their lack of numbers. Well, they showed up on race day with one less runner than I expected and still won the damn thing, so I guess that’s the last time I bet against ‘em. Also, Ball State’s Sara Barnhizer finished second individually, so that at least can go in my “he called it” column.
On the fellas’ side, I’m like 90% sure the Striders took the team win. Again, I can’t track down the official results, but I know that Elliot Rodstrum took first, Sam Adams third, and Alex Kowalak fifth. I also know that the Cincy boys took second on the team side, and freshman Logan Feeney took second individually. I’m trusting my powers of deduction. They don’t call me Sherlock Einstein for nothin’.
Now, onto this weekend!
My Predictions for 9/17
Again, with 6 meets on the calendar this weekend, I didn’t have the time or the resources to crunch the numbers like I usually do. And let’s be honest, even if I did — that’s a lot to read! Like, several thousand words! Y’all have races to run, nobody’s got time for that!
Even so, I took a look at the teams, took a look at who’s running, and tried to provide a detailed-yet-digestible breakdown of what to expect this weekend. Enjoy!
Cavalier Invitational
Now this here’s my bread and butter! Hosted by UVA on their historic Panorama Farms XC course, basically every Virginia club will be busting their rust on the Charlottesville grass tomorrow morning. In the men’s race, historical powerhouses like UVA, Maryland, Virginia Tech, and JMU will all by towing the line. Keep your eye, however, on William & Mary’s Team Blitz. I’m not just saying that 'because I’m an alum4 — they’ve got one of the strongest, deepest lineups in recent memory, and they’ve spent the last several weeks training at the poor man’s altitude camp (Williamsburg humidity).
Last year I’d have called Tech the favorite, but with the number of stars they graduated last year I’m less convinced. I’m not willing to bet against the home team on this one, and JMU has a habit of showing up when it matters. And, again I say it — don’t count the Blitz boys out! It’s gonna be a hell of a race.
On the women’s side, UVA distance superstar Thi Nguyen is returning as an alum5, Blitz captain Sydney Smith is squeezing this in mid-marathon training, and the Tech girls have historically been solid. I'd keep an eye on Maryland too.
My tentative prediction is a UVA win (they’ve got a comparatively huge team running this race), then Tech, then W&M and JMU battling it out for third.
UMass Minutement Invite
My knowledge of the New England teams could be better, I’ll be the first to admit that. Nonetheless, when I was looking at the start list for this one, some clear favorites jumped out. The men’s race will probably be a battle between Harvard & Northeastern, with Tufts in there as a solid dark horse. My money, at the end of the day, is on Northeastern.
In the women’s race, Harvard’s only fielding two runners, so they’re out of the team conversation. So are Tufts, who are only sending four. Ultimately I see it coming down to Northeastern vs UMass, though Stony Brook has the potential for a major upset here.
Penn State Nittany Lion Invitational
The Nittany Lion Invitational is set to be a good old-fashioned Pennsylvania slugfest. Ultimately, I see both the women’s and men’s races coming down to a duel between Penn State and Pittsburgh, with Binghamton and Villanova as strong dark horses. And, of course, keep a close watch on West Virginia6
Pitt, notably, will be missing a number of last year’s mainstays on Saturday, including Jacob Montgomery, Nick Cardamone, and especially Nick Wolk — NIRCA XC, 5000m, and 1500m champion.
Purdue Boiler Up Invitational
This one — I’ll admit! — was tricky. Historically speaking, Purdue is very good at XC and, being the home team, they’re lineup is huge this weekend. Indiana, on the other hand, is back with chips on their shoulders after narrowly getting swept by Illinois on their home turf. Their rust, too, has already been busted (so to speak). Also, Ball State distance maven Sara Barnhizer is back already, and I’d be shocked to see her finish outside the top 5. The same goes for Indiana’s Anabel Prokopy.
Wash U, I should mention, are my dark horse picks. Though smaller in numbers, they’re absolutely in the running for a podium finish in both races.
Carolina Classic
This is what I like to call a good ol’ Carolina showdown. In a stacked field of runners from UNC, NC State, App State, Wake Forest, and UNC-Charlotte, this one could be anyone’s race. UNC historically has a few very strong standouts (Cici Lounes, Ethan Turner, etc), but NC State has a lot of fast folks, and they’ve been putting in plenty of work this summer.
In the men’s race, I’m calling it NC State, then UNC, then UNC-C, with the caveat that you should absolutely watch out for Appalachian State. The women’s race I foresee finishing as UNC, NC State, and UNC-C.
Wisconsin Border Battle
This one isn’t NIRCA-sanctioned, but it’s got some of the best XC teams in the midwest going toe-to-toe on Saturday. Insider reports indicate that Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Iowa State, Northwestern, and Michigan will all be there ready to rip.
All of these teams are solid over all terrain, but something about midwestern kids and cross country just seems to click. I’d be a fool, however, to bet against MRun on any event longer than a mile. I’ve personally witnessed (via Strava, mind you) at least 2 Michigan boys running 100+ mile weeks over the summer, and the women haven’t been shying away from the 20 mile long runs either.
I wish I could watch livestreams of all of these races. Better yet, I wish I could just be there for all of these races. But I suppose photos and results tables will have to do.
Take plenty of pictures, y’all, and good luck out there!
Well, technically 5 NIRCA meets and an unaffiliated race, but more on that later.
If any of you more data-inclined speedsters want to help me on the analytics side, feel free to shoot me a DM.
Shout out Peach!
Kick out the jams. Always.
Now I know that’s allowed I’ve got some races to mark on my calendar.
That’s just good life advice.